Chris Kyalo
To many Kenyans it is not very clear how violence exactly affects election results. After all beating up people you want to vote for you hardly seems a smart thing to do. However by simply looking back at the recent history of politically instigated violence and ethnic clashes in Kenya, things became a lot clearer.
Unfortunately Kenyan voters tend to have memories that are just too dangerously short. And yet sometimes it is very important to have the legendary memory of an elephant because it becomes critical to remember stuff.
Ethnic or tribal clashes hardly existed in Kenya in the 60s and 70s when they actually should have been rampant because we were an infant nation then supposedly still grappling with the prospect of nationhood. Surprisingly, ethnic clashes were to blow up out of all proportions in the 90s.
Now do you remember what important event ushered in land/ethnic clashes with a vengeance?
Actually this ugly monster that now threatens free and fair elections in Kenya emerged big time after the notorious section 2(a) amendment to the constitution was repelled. The amendment had earlier made Kenya a de jure one political party state. When it was repelled in 1991 the country reverted back to multipartism. This single action of reverting back to a multi-party system immediately transformed our politics and made it much more competitive than it had been for years. There is plenty of evidence to suggest that ethnic troubles was the way in which many of our politicians decided to give themselves a political edge while denying ordinary folk their right to decide without being put under any sort of duress.
Indeed it is no accident that trouble has always flared up promptly like clock-work every time we have had an election around the corner. 1991/2 1996/7 2001/2 and recently 2006/7.
So what actually are the objectives of violence in elections and what do politicians seek to achieve?
i) Violence usually displaces voters and makes survival rather than voting the priority.
A very common trend we have seen in Kenya with politically motivated clashes and ethnic violence is that it quite often starts with members of a particular community being asked to move out of the area. Since they are registered voters in that area and Kenyan laws do not allow people to vote in constituencies where they have not been registered as voters, this effectively disenfranchises a large number of voters instantly. In some cases we have seen members of those affected tribes who are "not wanted" making "deals" to embrace the political beliefs and inclinations of locals and as a result of that being allowed to remain in their property in peace. In other cases we have seen families return after the elections when peace quickly returns because the political objectives of the violence have been achieved.
ii) Election violence shuts out politicians who do not possess a private army of sorts. Most affected are women candidates.
Election violence can be quite extreme and the whole idea is to completely intimidate and cause fear even amongst the perpetrators' political challengers making it impossible for them to sell themselves to voters. Women candidates are especially vulnerable to this and it takes a simple threat like that of rape to keep them very far away from the campaign front. This is one of the reasons why despite having a very significant percentage of women registered as voters countrywide, the august house has remained male dominated territory with very few elected women members of parliament.
iii) One of the main objectives of extreme violence is to create fear so as to deliver a message that will favour a certain candidate.
Election violence is not a joke and many times innocent ordinary folks have lost their lives. A death or two are very effective in spreading fear and voters will then be secretly told that only electing so and so will bring back peace. In the chaos this is usually a very powerful message that easily sees the incumbent (who in most cases is usually the perpetrator of the violence and insecurity) re-elected.
iv) In a chaotic situation of violence and insecurity, it is much easier for the instigator to cheat
There are very many ways to cheat after cowering everybody into submission, using violence. For example voters can be approached to exchange their voter’s cards for cash to help them out of the desperate predicament that the mayhem will usually have brought them to. Remember that in most cases people lose all their worldly possessions as their homes are razed to the ground or in other cases they are forced to flee for dear life, leaving behind everything which is promptly looted by the raiders. In this kind of scenario, the prospect of exchanging a voter's card for a mere Kshs 1,000 becomes very attractive. In the confusion of the mayhem it also becomes very easy to illegally import voters into a constituency to guarantee election victory for the person behind it all.
